In a compelling interview, former Indian diplomat Shyam Saran shares his insights on the India-China conflict. Saran emphasizes the futility of a potential war between the two nations, highlighting the need for ongoing dialogue and open lines of communication. With a careful analysis of the situation, Saran provides a balanced perspective on the risks and possibilities, underscoring the importance of containing the dangers of conflict through diplomatic means.
Former Indian diplomat Shyam Saran says that these two nations, commanding global attention, possess ancient civilizations and boast remarkably diverse cultures. What makes this conflict significant is the impending transition, with India (at the time of the interview) projected to surpass China in population size. Against the backdrop of a shifting geopolitical landscape, Saran elucidates the steady transformation in economic and political power, highlighting a departure from the traditional transatlantic dominance synonymous with the Western world.
Saran delved into the significance of India and China's emergence in the global landscape, emphasizing their pivotal roles in shaping the shifting dynamics. He highlighted that the future global order will inevitably bear the imprints of these two influential nations. The development trajectories they embark upon, along with the nature of their relationship, will decisively shape the future of Asia and consequently, the world. The fundamental question that needs answering revolves around whether India and China will engage in a path of rivalry or find common ground to collaborate on major issues. Presently, the relationship is strained due to the ongoing border dispute, placing both countries in a confrontational stance.
Saran underscored the interdependence of India and China in the larger context of a transforming global order. The emerging powers of both nations are instrumental in driving this shift, as their economic, political, and military prowess escalates. The trajectory of India and China's development, coupled with their interactions, holds immense influence over the course of events in Asia and beyond. The future scenario hinges on whether they can transcend their current state of confrontation, marked by the border issue, and establish a more cooperative and collaborative dynamic.
Considering the prevailing circumstances, Saran acknowledged that the border dispute has been a significant factor driving the confrontational state of affairs between the two countries. However, he recognized the need to explore avenues for rapprochement and resolution. The ultimate goal is to pave the way for a mutually beneficial relationship that enables India and China to address shared challenges and work together on critical global issues. Resolving the border issue is a vital step toward achieving such a future, wherein India and China can potentially transform their relationship from one of rivalry to one of strategic cooperation.
Saran acknowledges the arduous task of envisioning a positive trajectory for this bilateral association. However, he emphasizes that India's perspective necessitates a relationship with China that fosters collaboration and shared objectives. As the world moves towards greater convergence, numerous global issues demand collective efforts, transcending national boundaries. The recent pandemic serves as a stark reminder of this reality, as it knows no borders and requires unified responses. Saran argues that tackling challenges such as climate change reinforces the imperative for India and China, as the world's most populous and influential nations, to find common ground and cooperate on these converging issues.
Saran highlights the fundamental ideological disparities between the two nations. "The political dispensation in China is, after all, a one-party, communist state," he asserts, emphasizing the stark contrast with India's parliamentary democracy. The ideological divergence extends further, as India is firmly committed to a liberal democratic framework while China adheres to a more authoritarian system. These contrasting ideologies shape their respective worldviews and approaches, contributing to the existing differences between the two nations.
Saran emphasizes that the disparities go beyond political ideologies. "Our histories are not quite the same, our cultural experiences are not quite the same," he points out. The rich tapestry of India's historical and cultural heritage, distinct from China's, plays a significant role in shaping their perspectives. These divergences further contribute to the complexities surrounding the India-China relationship.
However, Saran believes that progress can be made by fostering greater engagement and meaningful conversations between the two sides. "It is only through much greater engagement, much greater conversations between the two sides that we can look at the possibility of thaw," he suggests optimistically. By encouraging dialogue and understanding, there exists the potential for the resolution of conflicts and the promotion of mutual cooperation between these two major Asian powers.
Despite a long and rich history of interactions between the two nations, there seems to be a noticeable void in the present day. Reflecting upon the past, Saran reminded us of a time when vibrant exchanges and thriving trade formed a significant part of their economies. Maritime trade, in particular, played a pivotal role in fostering a closer relationship between the two sides. However, he acknowledged that the contemporary scenario has witnessed a decline in people-to-people and cultural exchanges, leaving a palpable void in the bilateral relationship.
Saran emphasized the importance of understanding the historical context that shaped their relations. He highlighted a period when both countries actively engaged in extensive exchanges, leaving an indelible mark on their shared history. Trade, commerce, and cultural interactions thrived, building a solid foundation for closer ties. However, in the present landscape, Saran acknowledged the reality of limited people-to-people exchanges and cultural engagements between the two nations. Despite the historical legacy of vibrant connections, the contemporary situation reflects a regrettable departure from the past.
Saran's observations underscored the need to rekindle the spirit of cultural exchange between India and China. While acknowledging the existence of a robust history that bound the two nations together, he called attention to the current challenges hindering deeper ties. In an era where globalization and connectivity have reached unprecedented heights, the lack of people-to-people exchanges stands out as a missed opportunity for mutual understanding and appreciation.
"Increasing cultural exchanges between India and China should be a priority," he asserts. Saran acknowledges the significant popularity of Indian movies in China, attributing it to the limited diplomatic ties and strained relations. However, he cautions against allowing the conflict to overshadow all aspects of engagement, highlighting the need for a more nuanced approach. Drawing an analogy, he states that just as one wouldn't avoid reading Chekhov due to geopolitical tensions, cultural exchanges should not be stifled. Saran passionately believes that by encouraging language learning, such as Indians learning Chinese and vice versa, a deeper understanding can be cultivated, transcending stereotypes and fostering mutual appreciation.
Having personally experienced the transformative power of learning the Chinese language, Shyam Saran attests to its role as a "passport to understanding China." In his extensive diplomatic career, Saran discovered that language fluency acted as a gateway to comprehending China's rich culture and nuances. This realization fuels his belief that encouraging language learning, not just for diplomats but for individuals from various walks of life, holds immense potential for bridging the knowledge gap between the two countries. Saran laments the current lack of understanding of China in India and vice versa, as both nations are subjected to distorted and one-dimensional portrayals of each other. He emphasizes the need to rectify this by investing in cultural exchanges and language education, enabling a more informed and nuanced perception of India and China.
Saran underscores the imperative of dispelling the stereotypical images that plague the relationship between India and China. Both countries, he asserts, are victims of biased and simplified portrayals of one another. Saran contends that addressing this issue requires dedicated efforts from both sides. By fostering cultural exchanges and encouraging deeper understanding, India and China can transcend the stereotypes that currently hinder their relationship. Saran advocates for a more committed approach towards fostering mutual understanding, acknowledging that true progress can only be achieved when both nations genuinely invest in unravelling the complexities of their shared histories, cultures, and aspirations.
Saran acknowledges the complex dynamics that arise when tensions prevail at the border. When the situation becomes volatile and negative sentiments start to permeate, it becomes nearly impossible for any state or government to simply set aside these tensions and carry on with cultural exchanges as if nothing has happened. The ripple effect of such conflicts has a profound impact on the broader relationship between countries. However, Saran believes that amidst these challenges, it is crucial to actively engage in efforts to enhance mutual understanding.
Reflecting on the historical context, Saran offered insights into the India-China conflict and its connection to Pakistan. Since the 1960s, China has utilized Pakistan as a convenient proxy to counterbalance India's influence. Saran anticipated that this pattern would persist as long as India and China maintained a competitive and adversarial relationship. While India has adapted to this reality over the years, Saran acknowledged that Pakistan faced its own set of challenges, encompassing its economy, politics, and social fabric. The former diplomat emphasized that Pakistan's ability to continue its role as a Chinese proxy would ultimately hinge on its own introspection and decision-making.
He noted that the current challenge faced by India is a direct consequence of the significant power gap that has emerged, with China racing ahead in its economic growth. While India has established itself as a major economy, Saran cautioned against underestimating the speed at which China has expanded its capabilities in various domains. The glaring disparities between the two nations, be it in terms of economic prowess, technological advancements, or defence capabilities, have widened over time. Saran firmly believes that one crucial strategy to confront this challenge head-on is for India to propel its own growth at an accelerated pace and strive to acquire superior technologies.
Furthermore, Saran highlighted the significance of bolstering India's technological capabilities as an essential component of addressing the India-China conflict. With China's rapid strides in technological advancements, including areas such as artificial intelligence and 5G, India must strive to narrow the gap. By harnessing the potential of innovation and investing in research and development, India can pave the way for technological self-sufficiency and gain an edge in the face of mounting challenges. Saran underlined the criticality of a comprehensive approach that encompasses economic growth, technological advancements, and defense capabilities to effectively navigate the complex India-China conflict.
Saran acknowledged that while India continues to focus on enhancing its own capabilities, it is equally crucial to forge alliances with other nations sharing similar concerns regarding China's unilateral assertiveness. He highlighted the deepening of India's relations with the United States, Japan, and Australia as key examples of this approach. Saran further emphasized India's broader objective of strengthening ties with developing countries across the globe, particularly within the framework of the global South.
The former diplomat underlined India's commitment to building stronger ties with the global South, reflecting its aspiration to enhance cooperation and mutual support among developing countries. India recognizes the importance of bolstering relationships with nations that face similar challenges and aspirations, ultimately seeking to forge a united front against unilateral assertiveness. By deepening its engagement with the developing world, India aims to foster a more inclusive and equitable global order, where the voices and concerns of all nations are duly considered. Saran said that India's pursuit of partnerships aligns with its vision for a stable, secure, and prosperous future, both for itself and for the wider international community.
Saran emphasized the futility of a war between the two nations, citing that it would yield no benefits for either party involved. While acknowledging the possibility of sporadic border tensions escalating into a major confrontation, he cautions of factors such as accidental incidents, miscalculations, or unfortunate collisions that could trigger such a situation. However, Saran remained optimistic, highlighting the commitment demonstrated by both India and China in maintaining open lines of communication. With numerous rounds of talks already held and successful efforts made to defuse tensions at certain border points, he anticipated a continued process aimed at containing the perils of a full-fledged war.
(Disclaimer: This interview took place in January 2023 at Jaipur Literature Festival)
