China's President Xi Jinping's decision to skip the upcoming G20 meeting has sent shockwaves through diplomatic circles. In this blog post, we delve into the myriad speculations surrounding his absence, from political power dynamics to global tensions, and explore the potential implications for China's role on the world stage.
President Xi Jinping of China has chosen to forgo this
weekend's G20 meeting, a gathering he has diligently attended in person or
virtually since assuming power in 2013. Instead, Premier Li Qiang is leading
the Chinese delegation, raising eyebrows and sparking rampant speculation.
Why is this significant, you may wonder? Well, China, as a
global heavyweight, wields immense influence over international affairs. Xi's
conspicuous absence has led many to ponder the motivations behind this
decision.
One cannot ignore the centralization of power under Xi's
leadership. While other leaders may have skipped G20 meetings in the past,
their representatives held delegated authority. Yet, it remains unclear what
Premier Li is empowered to do in Xi's stead. What decisions can he make
regarding the communiqué or any potential deliverables? This opacity creates a
vacuum of uncertainty.
This move comes hot on the heels of Xi's absence from a speech
at the BRICS summit in South Africa, which in turn raised questions about his
health. Amid these curiosities, we find ourselves amidst a web of international
tensions and disputes involving China, including the United States, Japan,
India, and neighbouring countries with territorial conflicts. Some speculate
that Xi's absence may serve as a strategic manoeuvre to sidestep uncomfortable
conversations on these contentious issues.
China's close association with Russia and its refusal to
condemn Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has also placed Beijing under
scrutiny. Xi's decision to skip the G20 could be interpreted as a display of
solidarity with Putin, who is currently subject to an international criminal
court warrant for war crimes and is also absent from the summit.
Moreover, the recent update of China's national map, which
unilaterally claims regions, has irked many attending the G20. Simultaneously,
China's propaganda machine is in full swing, criticizing Japan's Fukushima
water release. This array of diplomatic tensions could explain Xi's absence.
Notably, just a year ago, Xi was urging governments to
strengthen cooperation within multilateral organizations, including the G20.
However, as China faces resistance from groups like AUKUS, the Quad, and the
G20 itself, which are pushing back against its military expansion and
relationship with Russia, Xi has sought to elevate groups like BRICS, which he
perceives as more aligned with the global south and less dominated by the west.
There are suspicions that Xi's absence may be a deliberate
snub towards India, the host of the G20 summit. China's relations with India
have been growing frostier due to ongoing border disputes in the Himalayan
region. India's military is even conducting drills along its border as the
summit proceeds.
While China's foreign affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, has
stated that relations between the two countries are "generally
stable" and that Chinese leaders have "always supported India's
hosting of this year's summit," some believe the snub narrative may serve
as a message to other nations. It could imply that if the world perceives Xi's
absence as India's failure to pay due deference to China, it aligns with Xi
Jinping's strategic objectives.
U.S. President Joe Biden had hoped to meet with Xi at the G20,
but the next potential encounter is on the sidelines of APEC in November. Some
analysts suggest that Beijing might be withholding this meeting until the U.S.
recalibrates its stance on U.S.-China relations. Intriguingly, domestic issues
in China have also cast a shadow over Xi's absence. Widespread flooding and
public discontent with the government's response, coupled with an increasingly
challenging economic situation, have kept Xi preoccupied on the home front.
Perhaps, like Mao before him, Xi prefers to stay home to manage these crises
and host visiting foreign dignitaries.
Recent reports, although met with scepticism, have hinted at
dissent within China's political elite, further complicating Xi's position. As
power becomes increasingly centralized around him, his absence can disrupt the
machinery of governance.
Xi's decision to skip the G20 may signify a shift in his
priorities. He may be less concerned about how his absence impacts China's
international image and more interested in maintaining an air of mystery,
making it difficult for others to predict his next move.
In the world of international diplomacy, where symbolism and
optics hold significant sway, Xi Jinping's absence from the G20 is more than
just a logistical issue. It's a glimpse into the complex web of global
politics, a puzzle with pieces that are still waiting to fall into place. While
we may not have all the answers, one thing is certain: Xi's absence has left
the world guessing, and in the intricate dance of diplomacy, uncertainty can be
a potent tool.
