Enthusiasm surged in the Seemanchal region of Bihar earlier this week as the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, led by former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, entered the state. Large crowds gathered from various directions to catch a glimpse of Mr. Gandhi, scion of the Nehru Gandhi family. These scenes unfolded shortly after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's return to the BJP-led NDA, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the helm.
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Mr. Kumar's Janata Dal (United) party, or JD(U), was previously part of the INDIA opposition bloc, which aimed to challenge the BJP in the upcoming national elections. However, Mr. Kumar broke away and joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP. He resigned as chief minister and was sworn in again, this time with his new coalition partners, all within hours.
Two months before Indians vote to elect their next government, Mr. Kumar's departure from the INDIA alliance deals a blow to the opposition's chances of challenging Modi's third term as prime minister. It also exposes deeper divisions within the opposition alliance.
The Bihar reversal occurs amid friction within the INDIA bloc to reach a seat-sharing arrangement with regional forces Trinamool Congress and Aam Aadmi Party. Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee has criticized the Congress during seat-sharing talks and hinted at going solo in the elections. The Congress is engaged in damage control, emphasizing their efforts to find a resolution. Similar challenges in seat-sharing negotiations have arisen in Punjab, where Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has indicated that AAP is preparing for an independent campaign.
Against this backdrop, the Bihar developments favor the BJP in what was, until recently, an opposition-ruled state. Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats hold significant political importance, and the broader picture seems to be the factor that led the BJP to welcome Mr. Kumar back into the NDA fold.
Rahul Gandhi-led Yatra passed through only three districts in its first leg and will re-enter Bihar after completing the Jharkhand leg of the Yatra. Once again, it will only touch a couple of districts while ignoring the vast hinterlands and decisive belts such as Samastipur, Darbhanga, Muzzafarpur, Begusrai, Nawada, Jamui, Munger, Bhagalpur, and the state capital of Patna.
Regarding the crowds witnessed in Bihar, the numbers were impressive. However, the Congress party should acknowledge that such gatherings are common even when former JDU president Lalan Singh showcases strength, not only in his constituency but also in any of the Bhumihar-Brahman dominated belts.
(Saket Suman is the author of The Psychology of a Patriot. Views expressed are strictly personal)
